Téléchargez le livre : Judgment in Predictive Analytics

Judgment in Predictive Analytics

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Éditeur :

Springer


Collection :

International Series in Operations Research & Management Science

Paru le : 2023-06-02

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Description

This book highlights research on the behavioral biases affecting judgmental accuracy in judgmental forecasting and showcases the state-of-the-art in judgment-based predictive analytics. In recent years, technological advancements have made it possible to use predictive analytics to exploit highly complex (big) data resources. Consequently, modern forecasting methodologies are based on sophisticated algorithms from the domain of machine learning and deep learning. However, research shows that in the majority of industry contexts, human judgment remains an indispensable component of the managerial forecasting process. This book discusses ways in which decision-makers can address human behavioral issues in judgmental forecasting. 
The book begins by introducing readers to the notion of human-machine interactions. This includes a look at the necessity of managerial judgment in situations where organizations commonly have algorithmic decision support models at their disposal.The remainder of the book is divided into three parts, with Part I focusing on the role of individual-level judgment in the design and utilization of algorithmic models. The respective chapters cover individual-level biases such as algorithm aversion, model selection criteria, model-judgment aggregation issues and implications for behavioral change. In turn, Part II addresses the role of collective judgments in predictive analytics. The chapters focus on issues related to talent spotting, performance-weighted aggregation, and the wisdom of timely crowds. Part III concludes the book by shedding light on the importance of contextual factors as critical determinants of forecasting performance. Its chapters discuss the usefulness of scenario analysis, the role of external factors in time series forecasting and introduce the idea of mindful organizing as an approach to creating more sustainable forecasting practices in organizations.
Pages
313 pages
Collection
International Series in Operations Research & Management Science
Parution
2023-06-02
Marque
Springer
EAN papier
9783031300844
EAN PDF
9783031300851
Informations sur l'ebook
Nombre pages copiables
3
Nombre pages imprimables
31
Taille du fichier
8223 Ko
Prix
168,79 €
EAN EPUB
9783031300851
Informations sur l'ebook
Nombre pages copiables
3
Nombre pages imprimables
31
Taille du fichier
9769 Ko
Prix
168,79 €

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